🎯 Projected-Score Accuracy
Every finished match is projected with a Monte-Carlo (Elo) simulation, then graded against the real score. Based on the last 119 tour matches.
62.2%winner correct
62.2%set count correct
2.5%exact score correct
🎯 exact score · ✅ winner + set count · ✔️ winner · ❌ missed
Winner accuracy by surface: Grass 59.3% (86) · Hard 69.7% (33)
By tour: ATP 61.7% (60) · WTA 62.7% (59)
| Match | Projected | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul v Cerundolo | 4-6 4-6 | 7-6 4-6 3-6 | ✔️ |
| Tiafoe v Fritz | 4-6 4-6 | 6-4 6-4 | ❌ |
| Eala v Noskova | 4-6 4-6 | 2-6 4-6 | ✅ |
| Tiafoe v Altmaier | 6-3 6-4 | 6-1 6-3 | ✅ |
| Humbert v Paul | 4-6 4-6 | 3-6 3-6 | ✅ |
| Fritz v Zverev | 6-3 6-4 | 6-7 6-4 7-5 | ✔️ |
| Cerundolo v Nakashima | 4-6 4-6 | 6-7 6-3 6-4 | ❌ |
| Bouzkova v Pliskova | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-1 | ✅ |
| Pegula v Sabalenka | 4-6 4-6 | 6-4 6-7 6-0 | ❌ |
| Gray v Arnaldi | 4-6 4-6 | 6-7 6-7 | ✅ |
| Auger-Aliassime v Tiafoe | 7-6 6-4 | 6-3 3-6 6-7 | ❌ |
| Hijikata v Humbert | 4-6 4-6 | 1-6 2-6 | ✅ |
| Fokina v Paul | 4-6 4-6 | 3-6 6-7 | ✅ |
| Eala v Svitolina | 4-6 4-6 | 6-3 6-4 | ❌ |
| Golubic v Li | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 2-6 6-3 | ✔️ |
| Medvedev v Altmaier | 6-3 6-4 | 4-6 7-6 4-6 | ❌ |
| Navarro v Maneiro | 6-3 6-4 | 7-6 6-2 | ✅ |
| Cerundolo v Fery | 6-3 6-4 | 7-6 3-6 6-4 | ✔️ |
| Bartunkova v Sabalenka | 4-6 2-6 | 6-2 6-7 4-6 | ✔️ |
| Collignon v Zverev | 4-6 4-6 | 6-7 6-7 | ✅ |
Exact scores rarely land (many possibilities), but winner & set-count are far more accurate — a realistic shadow of the result. About the model →