FT
VS
ShapovalovGea
Denis Shapovalov vs Arthur Gea
ATP Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel Oppo · Final · Hard · 3-6 4-6
🕐 Time03:00 UTC
📍 VenueLos Cabos, Mexico
💰 Career prizeShapovalov $14.9M · Gea $484K
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 67%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Denis Shapovalov 29% · Arthur Gea 71% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Shapovalov ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Shapovalov–Gea order).
Denis Shapovalov projected to win · 68% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 6%4-6 4-6 · 3%6-3 7-6 · 2%
Straight sets 54% · avg ~25 games · projection accuracy →
Actual: 3-6 4-6