● LIVE
VS
ArnaldiAlcaraz
Matteo Arnaldi vs Carlos Alcaraz
ATP Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Round 2 · Hard · 4-3
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueTokyo, Japan
⛅ Weather18°C · Partly cloudy
💰 Career prizeArnaldi $5.8M · Alcaraz $64.9M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Arnaldi (Elo 1615) meets Alcaraz (Elo 2117). The model favours Alcaraz at 95%. Form: Arnaldi 1L, Alcaraz 1L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 5%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Matteo Arnaldi 16% · Carlos Alcaraz 84% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Arnaldi ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Arnaldi–Alcaraz order).
Carlos Alcaraz projected to win · 96% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 7%4-6 2-6 · 6%2-6 2-6 · 6%
Straight sets 79% · avg ~21 games · projection accuracy →