● LIVE
VS
ShapovalovAlcaraz
Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz
ATP Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Quarterfinal · Hard · 5-6
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueTokyo, Japan
🌤️ Weather16°C · Mainly clear
💰 Career prizeShapovalov $14.9M · Alcaraz $64.9M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Shapovalov (Elo 1665) meets Alcaraz (Elo 2117). The model favours Alcaraz at 93%. Form: Shapovalov 5L, Alcaraz 1L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 7%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Denis Shapovalov 8% · Carlos Alcaraz 92% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Shapovalov ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Shapovalov–Alcaraz order).
Carlos Alcaraz projected to win · 93% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 6%4-6 2-6 · 6%2-6 4-6 · 6%
Straight sets 73% · avg ~21 games · projection accuracy →