● LIVE
VS
LeheckaAlcaraz
Jiri Lehecka vs Carlos Alcaraz
ATP Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · Final · Hard · 6-7(4) 2-1
🕐 Time09:00 UTC
📍 VenueTokyo, Japan
⛅ Weather22°C · Partly cloudy
💰 Career prizeLehecka $8.8M · Alcaraz $64.9M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Lehecka (Elo 1806) meets Alcaraz (Elo 2117). The model favours Alcaraz at 86%. Form: Lehecka 1L, Alcaraz 1L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 14%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Jiri Lehecka 13% · Carlos Alcaraz 87% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Lehecka ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Lehecka–Alcaraz order).
Carlos Alcaraz projected to win · 85% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 8%2-6 4-6 · 5%6-7 3-6 · 3%
Straight sets 63% · avg ~24 games · projection accuracy →