● LIVE
VS
SabalenkaBartunkova
Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova
WTA China Open · Round 3 · Hard · 4-6 1-1
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueBeijing, China PR
🌤️ Weather15°C · Mainly clear
💰 Career prizeSabalenka $49.2M · Bartunkova $680K
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Sabalenka (Elo 2126) meets Bartunkova (Elo 1611). The model favours Sabalenka at 95%. Form: Sabalenka 1L, Bartunkova 3L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 95%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Aryna Sabalenka 73% · Nikola Bartunkova 27% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Sabalenka ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Sabalenka–Bartunkova order).
Aryna Sabalenka projected to win · 95% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 7%6-3 6-2 · 6%6-1 6-2 · 5%
Straight sets 78% · avg ~20 games · projection accuracy →