● LIVE
VS
ArnaldiTomic
Matteo Arnaldi vs Bernard Tomic
ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 1 · Hard · 6-3
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueShanghai, China PR
💰 Prize pool$9,196,000
☀️ Weather15°C · Clear
💰 Career prizeArnaldi $5.8M · Tomic $6.7M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
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On Hard, Arnaldi (Elo 1615) meets Tomic (Elo 1422). The model favours Arnaldi at 75%. Form: Arnaldi 1L, Tomic 2L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 75%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Matteo Arnaldi 89% · Bernard Tomic 11% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Arnaldi ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Arnaldi–Tomic order).
Matteo Arnaldi projected to win · 72% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 6%6-3 6-2 · 3%7-6 6-4 · 3%
Straight sets 56% · avg ~24 games · projection accuracy →