FT
VS
NakashimaBublik
Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Bublik
ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 3 · Hard · 7-6(7) 3-6 6-7(5)
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueShanghai, China PR
💰 Prize pool$9,196,000
💰 Career prizeNakashima $6.8M · Bublik $10.9M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 37%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Brandon Nakashima 46% · Alexander Bublik 54% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Nakashima ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Nakashima–Bublik order).
Alexander Bublik projected to win · 63% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 5%4-6 2-6 · 3%6-7 3-6 · 3%
Straight sets 52% · avg ~25 games · projection accuracy →
Actual: 7-6(7) 3-6 6-7(5)