● LIVE
VS
VacherotPaul
Valentin Vacherot vs Tommy Paul
ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 3 · Hard · 2-2
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueShanghai, China PR
💰 Prize pool$9,196,000
☀️ Weather18°C · Clear
💰 Career prizeVacherot $3.4M · Paul $13.8M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Vacherot (Elo 1773) meets Paul (Elo 1820). The model favours Paul at 57%. Form: Vacherot 1L, Paul 1L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 43%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Valentin Vacherot 44% · Tommy Paul 56% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Vacherot ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Vacherot–Paul order).
Tommy Paul projected to win · 56% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 4%6-3 6-4 · 3%2-6 4-6 · 2%
Straight sets 50% · avg ~25 games · projection accuracy →