● LIVE
VS
MensikGea
Jakub Mensik vs Arthur Gea
ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters · Round 4 · Hard · 3-3
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueShanghai, China PR
💰 Prize pool$9,196,000
☁️ Weather20°C · Overcast
💰 Career prizeMensik $6.8M · Gea $484K
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Mensik (Elo 1825) meets Gea (Elo 1540). The model favours Mensik at 84%. Form: Mensik 1L, Gea 3L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 84%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Jakub Mensik 80% · Arthur Gea 20% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Mensik ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Mensik–Gea order).
Jakub Mensik projected to win · 84% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 9%6-3 6-2 · 4%6-3 7-6 · 3%
Straight sets 62% · avg ~24 games · projection accuracy →