● LIVE
VS
PaulMedvedev
Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev
ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters · Quarterfinal · Hard · 3-6 6-1 3-5
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueShanghai, China PR
💰 Prize pool$9,196,000
🌦️ Weather21°C · Drizzle
💰 Career prizePaul $13.8M · Medvedev $51.2M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
📝 Preview
On Hard, Paul (Elo 1820) meets Medvedev (Elo 1899). The model favours Medvedev at 61%. Form: Paul 1L, Medvedev 1W.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 39%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Tommy Paul 7% · Daniil Medvedev 93% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Paul ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Paul–Medvedev order).
Daniil Medvedev projected to win · 63% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 6%6-7 3-6 · 3%6-3 6-4 · 3%
Straight sets 52% · avg ~25 games · projection accuracy →