● LIVE
VS
ArnaldiDarderi
Matteo Arnaldi vs Luciano Darderi
ATP Erste Bank Open · Round 1 · Hard · 5-7 2-5
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueVienna, Austria
🌤️ Weather9°C · Mainly clear
💰 Career prizeArnaldi $5.8M · Darderi $4.4M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
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On Hard, Arnaldi (Elo 1615) meets Darderi (Elo 1595). The model favours Arnaldi at 53%. Form: Arnaldi 1L, Darderi 1L.
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 53%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Matteo Arnaldi 4% · Luciano Darderi 96% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Arnaldi ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Arnaldi–Darderi order).
Matteo Arnaldi projected to win · 55% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 5%4-6 4-6 · 4%7-6 6-4 · 3%
Straight sets 50% · avg ~26 games · projection accuracy →