FT
VS
RublevPaul
Andrey Rublev vs Tommy Paul
ATP Erste Bank Open · Round 1 · Hard · 5-7 2-6
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueVienna, Austria
💰 Career prizeRublev $32.7M · Paul $13.8M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 42%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Andrey Rublev 2% · Tommy Paul 98% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Rublev ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Rublev–Paul order).
Tommy Paul projected to win · 61% — most likely 4-6 4-6
4-6 4-6 · 6%6-7 3-6 · 3%4-6 6-7 · 3%
Straight sets 51% · avg ~25 games · projection accuracy →
Actual: 5-7 2-6