FT
VS
AlcarazPaul
Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul
ATP Erste Bank Open · Quarterfinal · Hard · 6-4 7-6(2)
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueVienna, Austria
💰 Career prizeAlcaraz $64.9M · Paul $13.8M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 85%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Carlos Alcaraz 91% · Tommy Paul 9% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Alcaraz ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Alcaraz–Paul order).
Carlos Alcaraz projected to win · 85% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 7%6-3 6-2 · 4%6-3 7-6 · 3%
Straight sets 64% · avg ~23 games · projection accuracy →
Actual: 6-4 7-6(2)