FT
VS
AlcarazMedvedev
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
ATP Erste Bank Open · Semifinal · Hard · 6-4 7-6(2)
🕐 Time04:00 UTC
📍 VenueVienna, Austria
💰 Career prizeAlcaraz $64.9M · Medvedev $51.2M
🎟️ TicketsFind tickets ↗
📏 Distance
Predictions — Win probability
Elo 78%
📈 Win-probability timeline
Carlos Alcaraz 97% · Daniil Medvedev 3% — dashed = set boundary; above midline = Alcaraz ahead
🎾 Projected Score
From 4,000 Monte-Carlo runs on the Elo ratings — a likely-score estimate (Alcaraz–Medvedev order).
Carlos Alcaraz projected to win · 81% — most likely 6-3 6-4
6-3 6-4 · 8%6-3 6-2 · 4%6-3 7-6 · 3%
Straight sets 59% · avg ~24 games · projection accuracy →
Actual: 6-4 7-6(2)